Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to be the top-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected "clear winner" and "console market leader," surpassing Microsoft and Sony.
This forecast stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, providing a significant head start over competitors. While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages, leaving a potential three-year gap before their release (unless a surprise launch occurs in 2026). DFC Intelligence suggests only one of these post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve substantial success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.
The Switch's enduring popularity contributes to this prediction. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that the Switch has surpassed the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales, becoming the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy, despite a reported 3% decrease in yearly Switch sales.
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. After a two-year downturn, the industry is expected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 projected as a particularly strong year. This resurgence is attributed to new product releases, including the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, which are anticipated to boost consumer spending. The global gaming audience is also projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This increased accessibility and engagement are driving hardware sales across PC and consoles.
