Summary
- A gaming analyst predicts US sales of 4.3 million Nintendo Switch 2 units in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch.
- While the analyst anticipates strong Switch 2 performance, the PlayStation 5 is projected to lead US console sales.
- The Switch 2's success hinges on several factors, including launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup.
Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts approximately 4.3 million Nintendo Switch 2 unit sales in the US during 2025, assuming a first-half launch. This echoes the original Switch's success, which sold 4.8 million units by the end of 2017, exceeding initial projections and leading to air-freighted shipments to meet demand. Fans hope Nintendo has learned from past supply chain challenges.
Anticipation for Nintendo's next console is high, with the Switch 2 frequently trending on social media. However, this online buzz doesn't guarantee strong sales. The Switch 2's performance in 2025, should it launch this year, will depend heavily on launch timing and the quality of its initial game lineup.
Circana video game analyst Mat Piscatella projects 4.3 million Switch 2 units sold in the US in 2025, provided it launches in the first half of the year. A pre-summer launch, perhaps by April 2025, could capitalize on Japan's Golden Week and global seasonal spending.
Analyst Predicts 4.3M Switch 2 Sales in 2025
Given the anticipated (but uncertain) imminent announcement, I predict Nintendo's next console will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming a 1H launch), representing roughly one-third of all console hardware sales (excluding PC portables). — Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z
Piscatella further elaborates, suggesting the Switch 2 will account for approximately one-third of US video game hardware sales, excluding portable PCs like the Steam Deck and ROG Ally. He anticipates potential supply constraints due to high initial demand, but the extent of Nintendo's manufacturing preparedness remains unclear. It's possible Nintendo has proactively addressed potential shortages, mirroring their response to the original Switch and PS5 launches.
Despite a positive outlook for Switch 2 sales, Piscatella predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its position as the top-selling console in the US. While considerable hype surrounds the Switch 2, the anticipated 2025 release of Grand Theft Auto 6, alongside other major PS5 titles, could significantly boost PlayStation sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success will depend on its hardware capabilities and the appeal of its launch titles.
